Live scorecard · updated
We store third-party prediction-market probabilities at fixed horizons, wait for each dated scenario to settle, and publish the result. This measures one external input to CountrySignal — not the full CountrySignal engine and not official travel advice.
The scorecard is being computed. Check back shortly.
Dated markets cover checkable scenarios such as an attack by a date, a ceasefire holding, or an airspace closing. CountrySignal stores the last recorded price available on or before the seven- and 30-day cutoffs, then scores the gap between that probability and the settled outcome with the Brier method. Prices observed close to settlement are kept as an internal diagnostic but are not mixed into this fixed-horizon scorecard.
These numbers measure prediction-market probabilities captured by CountrySignal. They do not measure the fused country verdict, GDELT, the official travel baseline, natural-hazard alerts, or notification quality. A market sample is self-selected around uncertain and newsworthy questions, so its skill cannot be generalized to every country or every kind of danger.