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countrysignal gives every country one live verdict (ok to travel, caution, or avoid) built from real-time signals rather than opinion. This page explains exactly what goes into that verdict and where the limits are.
Each country's verdict fuses several independent signals, so no single source can move it on its own:
| Signal | What it captures |
|---|---|
| Natural hazards | Live earthquakes, tsunamis, storms, floods and wildfires, with their real footprint. |
| Armed conflict | A registry of active conflicts and their status (on-soil, fought abroad, or tension), updated as situations change. |
| Civil unrest | An anomaly signal from world news volume and tone, used only as corroboration. |
| Forward risk | Dated scenario probabilities for conflict-affected countries. |
Avoid means an active or likely armed conflict on the country's own territory. Caution means the situation is unstable but everyday travel is not currently advised against. Ok to travel means no major adverse signal is tracked. A confirmed conflict on a country's soil always sets a red floor, no matter what the other signals say.
Disaster events appear within minutes of confirmation and leave the map when they end, so what you see is always currently active. Conflict and news signals refresh continuously. Each page shows the date it was last updated.
countrysignal is an information service, not official travel advice, and its verdicts are estimates that can be wrong. It does not replace your government's travel guidance or local emergency authorities. When officials give instructions, follow them first.